The International Monetary Fund gives new forecasts for the development of the Russian economy for two years ahead

According to estimates of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), economic growth in Russia will decline in 2019 by 0.2 percentage points and amounted to 1.6 %, and in 2020 – by 0.1 percentage points and will stay at 1.7 %. The data are presented in the updated IMF report for January 2019.

A separate comment on the decline in GDP growth in Russia is not given in the report, but it is predicted that activity in the Commonwealth of Independent States will grow by about 2 ¼ percent in 2019-2020, which is slightly lower than expected in October 2018, due to the instability of oil prices in Russia.

The main reason for the slowdown in the global economy in 2019-2020 is the slowdown in the growth of economies in developed countries:

“GDP growth in advanced economies will slow from 2.3% in 2018 to 2.0% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020. The global growth forecast for 2019 and 2020 has already been revised downward in the last WEO, partly due to the negative effects of tariff increases adopted in the US and China earlier this year. A further downward revision since October partly reflects a shift from a softer dynamic in the second half of 2018 – including in Germany after the introduction of new car fuel emission standards and in Italy, where concerns about sovereign and financial risks weighed domestic demand – but also a weakening of sentiment in financial markets, as well as a contraction in Turkey, which is projected to be deeper than expected“.

The negative consequences for the growth of the world economy will be the UK’s exit from the European Union “without transactions” and the slowdown in China.

One of the ways to improve the situation in the world economy in the IMF believes that

“that countries jointly and promptly resolved their trade disputes and resulting political uncertainty, rather than building prohibitive barriers and destabilized the already slowing global economy. In all economies, measures are urgently needed to stimulate potential output growth, expand coverage and strengthen fiscal and financial buffers in the face of high debt burdens and tighter financial conditions“.