Annual analytical review “MDF/HDF Market in Russia in 2020-2021”: moderate production decrease based on the results of 2020, unprecedented price growth by 247% and commissioning of new facilities

The production output of MDF/HDF, fiberboard (all types of fiberboards) reached 3.7 million m³ (-4.5% vs 2019). If we exclude the mature segment of the wet-processed fiberboard from the calculations, the production output of MDF/HDF and dry-processed fiberboard as of the end of 2020 was 3.3 million m³, -4.8% vs 2019. The decrease was recorded based on such companies as Kastamonu, Kronospan, Swiss Krono, Latat, etc.

The average load of working enterprises was 62% (including the unemployed capacities). In 2019, a new player, Pavlovsky Woodworking Plant, was added to the existing facilities (capacity is 250,000 m³/year); in 2021, a new plant of Kronospan Group was launched in the Kaluga Region, Kronospan Kaluga, and MDF Plant in Mortka (KhMAD) resumed its activity. Thus, the all-Russian capacities for the production of MDF/HDF, dry-processed fiberboard amounted to 4.6 million m³. Wet processed fiberboard production capacity is sufficient to cover domestic demand and export supplies. The maturity of wet-processed fiberboard segment, old equipment, competition with MDF/HDF explains the decrease of capacities in the last decade: APPM, Nelidovskiy Woodworking Plant, and Mariiskiy Pulpmill have stopped producing this type of board.

Export of MDF/HDF and fiberboard from Russia stabilized in 2018–2020 at a level of 1.2–1.3 million m³. All manufacturers of MDF/HDF work for export. The largest countries importing fiberboard and MDF/HDF are traditionally the countries of CIS – 69%. Among European consumers of Russian fiberboard and MDF/HDF, the leading countries are Romania, Poland, and Germany. In 2018–2020, Kastamonu (23%), Egger Gagarin (18%), and Kronospan (11%) were confidently holding the TOP 3 among all the exporters of MDF/HDF and flooring.

After a significant decrease in 2015, the volume of MDF/HDF import to Russia over the past four years was fixed in the range of 500–510 thousand m³. After a decrease in 2019 (-2%), in 2020, the volume of MDF/HDF import to the Russian market increased by 6.7% to 524,000 m³. About 80% of products imported into Russia under the FEACN code “fibreboards” are products of subsequent processing, highly processed or finished products (flooring, wall and ceiling panels, blanks for interior doors, floor skirting, molded boards, molding, etc.), not the “basic” plate.

Over the past years, the position of the main exporters of MDF/HDF boards, insulation boards, and flooring to the Russian market has been taken by four regions: Belorussia, China, Germany, and Poland. The share in the total import structure of TOP-4 increases from 87% in 2014 to 92% in 2018–2019; in 2020 the share decreased to 90.5%.

In July 2021, the majority of MDF/HDF items did not keep their prices stable; in some items the growth reached 64% m/m, for example, the price of laminated MDF (16 mm, 2800*2070) increased up to 53,046 rubles/m³ (excluding VAT, warehouse in the Moscow region). MDF (16 mm, 2800×2070, ground) kept its price at 21,926 rubles/m³ (excluding VAT, warehouse in Moscow region), HDF (3 mm not ground): + 28.7% m/m up to 42,933 rubles/m³, and the price for laminated HDF (3 mm, 2800×2070) increased + 38% m/m to 47,485 rubles/m³ (excluding VAT, warehouse in the Moscow region). Prices for fiberboard slightly increased in July. The average price for fiberboard TSN-40 (3.2 mm, 1830×2440) according to the m/m index increased by 2.5%, YoY by 123.8%, and by mid-July was 28,138 rubles/m³.

The “no change” scenario for the development of the MDF/HDF market in Russia for the period of 2031 assumes that the announced investment projects will be implemented: ShKDP, Luzales, IDK; production capacity utilization will be 70–80%. The volume of possible supply (production + import, excluding export) of MDF/HDF and fiberboard in the domestic market by 2031 will amount to 5.4 million m³. By 2031, wet-processed fiberboard capacity will decrease by 100,000 m³. Domestic consumption will stabilize at 3.7 million m³; export will be 1.7 million m³, and import will be minimum, about 400,000 m³.

Read detailed information in the annual review MDF / HDF Market in Russia in 2020-2021.